How Africa Can Develop Itself and Challenge the Economic Giants of the World

I am a strong believer in the theory that large populations equal progress. So if you wake me up and ask me what the greatest challenges to economic and technological progress that Africa faces are, I will, without hesitation, say the challenges are its small populations and tiny, unviable states. And I will give you the example of Asian countries which have large populations and are doing very well to support my argument. China, for example, it the world’s most populous nation, but its people aren’t starving.

Large Populations Equals Progress

Again I will tell you that progress is the outcome of successful solution to problems.  Bands of small tribes wandering all over the place in the vast plains of Africa create few challenges and few needs that can stimulate innovation and progress. 

More over, there are no chances for large profitable businesses. Every successful businessman or woman will tell you business is numbers. The larger the number of people who can buy your goods and services, the easier it is to do business and to invest in research. United States of America is a good example.  In Germany, for example, research is a big part of a company’s expenditure. A small country of a few million people will not create the kind of market that allows reinvesting in research.

Bharti Airtel and Big Population Equals Progress Theory

I was therefore, very happy to see that the world – especially the business community silently supports this theory. Let me quote verbatim, a statement by Bharti Airtel Ltd,  the Indian mobile telephone company which in a statement as to why it is heavily investing in Africa, gives interesting population statistics. (For those who don’t know, Bharti Airtel Ltd, recently bought Zain in Kenya, and operates in many other African countries).

“First and foremost, our decision to enter Africa is validated as the market is fantastic. The African population will double to two billion people whereas India will go up to 1.6 billion and China, up to 1.4 billion. It has consumer spending of $1.4 trillion, which is far higher than India’s; a middle class of half a billion. The median age is 17-18 (which is much lower than the Indian median age of around 24-25); and 25% of global youth will be in Africa.

“In terms of economies, of the top 30 economies of Africa, 27 are doing very well with more than 5% growth. Oil is being found in many countries. Democratic and social transformation is happening. Sectors like transport, communication are giving a catalytic boost to the economies. Not only the decision of the acquisition is good but the timing is good because all these positive changes are happening in Africa as we are entering. Also the industry teledensity is only 20%, which is right for us because we can grow this to 60% teledensity.”

Case of East African Common Services Organization

In my view, Africa needs to re-examine its population policies. Cross border trade can, of course, improve the situation. But it isn’t reliable. The East African Common Services Organization, a beautiful organization bequeathed to Kenya, Tanganyika and Uganda by the British colonial authorities collapsed under the rule of the so-called founding fathers, Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya, Julius Nyerere of Tanganyika (now Tanzania) and Milton Obote of Uganda, due to ideological differences and petty jealousies.

From this observation, it follows that no industry can survive without sufficient home-base market. Kenya’s coffee industry has remained focused on export market. Today it is dying on its feet. Kenya’s tea industry has a large home market. Today it is thriving. The key in all this large populations that has needs which make it wake up and move forward.